Ex ante evaluation of the ECOWAS monetary union project with regard to the Theory of Optimum Currency Areas (OCA): Review of the literature and analysis of stylized facts on the economy of ECOWAS

Baye Alioune

 SAMB Economist, Phd

Sanorsamb25@yahoo.com

 Tél:+8613660677084

Summary

This article focuses on the ex-ante evaluation of the ECOWAS monetary union project. It attempts to provide an answer to the following research question: does the ECOWAS zone fulfill the necessary conditions for an optimal monetary zone? We have therefore tried to test the following research hypothesis: the ECOWAS zone fulfills the necessary conditions for an optimal monetary zone. The methodology adopted to test this hypothesis is focused exclusively on a review of the literature on the issue, supplemented by an analysis of stylized facts on the economy of ECOWAS. Through a review of the literature we exposed the theory on the criteria necessary for the construction of an optimal monetary zone and proceed to measurements of the indicators relating to these criteria at the level of ECOWAS.

The analysis of the results obtained through the examination of the ECOWAS economy with regard to the optimality criteria within the meaning of Mundell, enriched by contributions on the theory of optimal currency areas including those of MacKinnon, Kenen, Ingram, Cooper, Kindleberger, produces mixed feelings about the profitability of the ECOWAS monetary union project from the point of view of all member states.

Introduction

This article focuses on the ex-ante evaluation of the ECOWAS monetary union project. Such research retains all its relevance at a time of the rise of regional unions, but above all the scale of the crises which weaken the political cohesion and the future of these so-called unions. Nowadays the architecture of the world economy is more and more marked by the existence or projects of construction, zones of economic integration in particular of free trade, common market and monetary union with a view to remove the barriers or obstacles to international transactions for an intensification of the flow of international trade flows on the one hand but also for the conquest of market shares. Several examples of regional economic zones can be cited in this regard, particularly in America (North American Free Trade Agreement, Latin American Integration Association, Mercosur) In Europe (European Union, European Free Trade Association, Central European Free Trade Union), in Africa (African Union, Economic Community of Central African States, Economic Community of West African States, etc.) in Asia (Association of South-East Asian Nations). In Africa, the member states of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) nurture the ambition to have a common currency by 2020, given the coexistence of several currencies that limit the development of intra-zone trade. There are eight currencies in the ECOWAS zone including the CFA franc and seven national currencies. To achieve this, ECOWAS intend to first create a second monetary zone bringing together all the countries with a currency other than the CFA Franc, namely the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ). Ultimately the two currency areas should merge into one to create the single currency of ECOWAS called the ECO which moreover constitutes a step in the march towards the construction of a monetary union on a continental scale which would bring together the 54 African countries.

According to economic literature, monetary union corresponds to the fourth and final phase of economic integration with the creation of a common currency. Usually, it is preceded by 3 intermediate stages, namely the free trade area, the customs union; economic union. It presupposes the adoption of a single currency and a common monetary policy in order to promote competitiveness, intra-zone trade, economic growth, control of

inflation, job creation of member countries of the currency area. Economic and social life, like any activity, meets periods of expansion, faces fever following a shock, experiences treatment and recovery. During periods of fever, cyclical or non-cyclical, imbalances naturally occur requiring the application of therapies resulting from the manipulation of budgetary, monetary and commercial variables in order to make the necessary adjustments. However, Mundell defines a currency area as that within which the optimal adjustment occurs with fixed exchange rates, while in relations with other areas, the optimal adjustment occurs at variable rates. In other words, it is about giving up the ability to correct the imbalances caused by cyclical fluctuations by an exchange rate policy. According to Albert Ondo Ossa (2000)"even if it seems difficult to determine these gains with precision, the ZMO constitutes in many respects an effective means of guarding against currency crises".

According to Alesia and Barro (2002) “countries adhere to monetary unions with neighboring countries with the aim of facilitating trade as long as their neighbors have quality monetary institutions” because “an inflation rate and transaction costs weak commercials are sources of commercial gains”. According to Guerin (2001) “the main advantage of monetary union is the reduction in the costs of commercial transactions. The countries most integrated in international trade benefit more than others from a monetary union with their main partners. According to some authors, the main cost of joining a currency zone is the renunciation of the ability to damp cyclical fluctuations through an independent countercyclical monetary policy. However, these cyclical fluctuations can take on an asymmetry character. They result from a significant difference in the phase of economic recession following a negative shock compared to the expansion phase. Such a situation is a constraint or an obstacle to the construction of a monetary union, hence the importance given to convergence before and after the union. On cyclical asymmetry, Burns and Mitchell (1946) reveal that negative shocks lead to larger economic contractions than positive shocks. Conversely, the cyclical symmetry coupled with the economic interdependence of the candidate countries for union appears to be a factor in the success of a monetary zone. Empirical experience shows that most macroeconomic time series including production, consumption and gross domestic product to a lesser extent exhibit asymmetric cyclical

fluctuations. This confirms the opinion of Schor et al. (2000), according to which "the optimality or the viability of the construction of a monetary union is conditioned by objective data".

For this, the analysis of the feasibility of a monetary zone construction project remains an important step in the process of deciding whether or not to integrate a currency zone. In other words, it implicitly addresses the issue of the profitability of the monetary union from the point of view of each member ". In this regard, Mundell's construction remains robust and up-to-date and provides a relevant theoretical framework in the matter. According to Armand et al. (2000) “The theory of optimal currency areas is an essential analytical framework for the choice of exchange rate regime. It is also often used to assess the different facets of monetary union projects. She is studying the advisability of a group of countries forming a monetary union. "

Two schools of thought have mainly marked the theory on optimal currency areas. The first, commonly referred to as the “traditional theory of ZMOs, stems from the foundational work of Mundell (1961), Mck1nnon (1963) and Kenen (1969), and states that the optimality of a currency area is based on the conditions that prevailed before the formation union and when the exchange rate opportunity costs are offset by the gains from adopting a common currency or a fixed exchange rate regime. The second, following the pioneering work of Frankel and Rose (1998), postulates that a monetary union endogenously produces the conditions for its optimality. Consequently, the analysis of currency areas should be ex post and not ex ante. This is the “theory of endogenous criteria”. Mundell's (1961) analysis according to Schor (2000) "first aims to draw the optimal boundaries of currency areas, to define the circumstances that justify the choice of fixed exchange rates, by a specific country. It provides a theoretical basis for the choice of exchange rate regime by each economy such that flexibility is optimal with the outside world; and within fixity, the identity of monetary unit is optimal”. Regarding the optimality criteria of exchange rate fixity, Mundell emphasizes factor mobility and the symmetry of reactions to external shocks. A vast literature then strives to extend the list  of criteria by taking into account the degree of economic openness, the degree of diversification of production, and financial integration. The main research question that we will try to address through this article is the following: Is

the ECOWAS zone an optimal monetary zone? The main objective of this article is to see whether ECOWAS member countries have an interest in opting for a single currency. For this we will sift the ECOWAS economy through the various criteria for optimality of a monetary zone to test the following hypothesis that the ECOWAS Zone is not an optimal monetary zone. Our analysis will be focused exclusively on a review of the literature on the issue raised, supplemented by an analysis of stylized facts on monetary unions.

1-  Literature review

1-1  Review of the theoretical literature on the criteria for adopting a single currency.

The literature on OCA is today the subject of two types of classifications which distinguish between traditional analyzes and modern analyzes, on the one hand, analyzes in real terms and analyzes in monetary terms on the other. The theory of the optimal currency area has therefore gradually been enriched with new criteria. To the labor mobility highlighted by Mundell (1961), MacKinnon (1963) adds the degree of openness, Kenen (1969), the degree of diversification, Ingram (1969), the financial dimension, Cooper (1977) and Kindleberger (1986), the homogeneity of preferences. The necessary conditions of a monetary union according to kindleberger would be the traditional criteria, namely the mobility of factors and the opening of economies. The sufficient condition for monetary union is the existence of an agreement between member countries on one or more major preferences relating to the key objectives which govern their future.

a-  Factor mobility:

According to the economic literature, asymmetric shocks can cause a recession that can be transmitted from one region to another if the exchange rate is fixed and labor is not very mobile between two regions because exchange rate adjustment is excluded. Mundell thus believes that the flexibility of labor markets is essential in the event of an asymmetric shock in a monetary union and the ideal decomposition of the world into monetary zones should be done in such a way that the factors of production are mobile within each zone but immobile from one area to another. The flexibility of labor markets is therefore an important substitute for exchange rate adjustment. To reach this conclusion, Mundell develops a case in which, following an asymmetric demand shock, two countries experience a shift in demand from one country to the other country thanks to two automatic stabilizers allowing the adjustment to know the flexibility of wages; labor mobility.

In other words, labor mobility eliminates or attenuates the contagion effect of the economic depression that has arisen in a region following an external

shock at the level of the other countries of the zone because the displacement of the labor force from the depressed region towards the prosperous region could balance the two labor markets through an increase in the labor supply generating lower labor costs favorable to the price competitiveness of the products of the prosperous region. We thus note that the mobility of the labor factor is an adjustment factor in the face of the asymmetric shock in a context of monetary union. Scitovsky (1967) and ingram (1969) evoke the criterion of financial integration and put forward the proposition according to which the optimal monetary zone would be an integrated financial zone. Mundell (1973), while recalling the preponderance of the mobility of factors of production, considers that in the presence of an integration of the financial system, the asymmetry of shocks would be reduced. The integration of the financial system only takes place when there is perfect mobility of financial assets across the national borders of the member states of a regional economic community. Cross- border financial transactions in the various financial markets must be guided by common regulations, which enact common rules and ethics as well as systems and standards for accounting, clearing and implementation.

Financial integration in emerging and expanding economies is fostered by a belief that, in addition to enhancing the quality of macroeconomic management, it facilitates economic growth and reduces instability due to its tendency to share risk across borders. The stronger  the financial integration between countries, the more these countries have an interest in instituting fixed exchange rates. Deficits could thus be financed easily and without significant disturbing variations in exchange rates or interest rates. Schor (2000), the movement of capital from the depressed region to the prosperous region could lead to a fall in the cost of capital, which would have a positive effect on the price competitiveness of products in the prosperous region and therefore an adjustment of the balances of the balances of trades. Factor mobility favors compensatory transfers which rebalance the internal payments balances at the level of the optimal monetary zone”. However, the economic function provided by factor mobility naturally presents limits. This would be at the origin of the development of the framework of the theory on optimal currency areas which has gradually been enriched with new criteria including the degree of openness, the degree of diversification, the homogeneity of preferences.

b-       The degree of openness

To the mobility of labor and financial capital highlighted by Mundell (1961), MacKinnon (1963) adds the degree of openness. Mackinnon (1963) uses the degree of openness of economies as a criterion, because greater openness of economies (ratio of tradable goods to non-tradable goods) necessarily reduces the costs of waiving exchange rate adjustments and enhances their benefits. The cost of a monetary union is therefore relatively lower for an open economy, whether labor markets are flexible or not. According to (Krugman, 1990 and Mélitz, 1991), the more open a country is in relation to its partners in a monetary union, the more it will derive from its participation. The savings in transaction costs will be high since they will relate to a large volume of trade. The gains from reducing uncertainty increase for the same reason. Indeed, trade openness as a vector of technology transfer promotes economic competitiveness. According to Schor, (2000) “in an open economy, a fixed exchange rate is therefore a condition for domestic price stability and a strong currency becomes a factor of competitiveness. The degree of openness of the  economy therefore affects the effectiveness of stabilization policies”.

Mackinnon (1963), emphasizing the size of economies, asserts that “small economies are better candidates for monetary unions because they tend to be much more open and therefore not subject to rigidities. He further argues that when a small country trades with a large partner, it is unable to conduct a fully autonomous monetary policy. Small open countries therefore have an interest in forming currency unions that would guarantee the stability of their trade without prejudicing the independence of their already limited monetary policy. (See impact of Monetary Unions on trade: the case of UEMOA, (2013). The economic literature provides a battery of indicators likely to measure the economic openness of a given country. On this subject MacKinnon (1963) measures the degree of openness by the ratio of tradable and non-tradable goods.

c-  The degree of diversification

To labor factor mobility and the degree of openness, Kenen (1969) adds the degree of diversification. KENEN (1969) believes that only a diversified economy can afford to compensate for the negative effects of unstable

demand for certain products. This allows it to maintain fixed exchange rates with the outside world. Countries which therefore have a strong diversification of economies have no advantage in conducting a national monetary policy. According to Schor, (2000) "if the demand for a product declines, the consequences of the shock on the employment of a diversified economy are much less extensive than if it is a question of the country's mono-production. Diversified economies can therefore more easily keep fixed exchange rates, and integrate into a monetary zone, than those which are not”.

d-  The homogeneity of preferences:

The homogeneity of preferences presupposes the convergence of preferences of candidates for monetary union who must share the same key objectives in terms of economic policy. According to Schor, (2000) it is essential in particular that they seek convergence in matters of internal stability, that they accept the same compromise between unemployment and inflation. According to Henry Bourguinat (1999), this agreement on a few major preferences depends on the sufficient condition of union, the necessary conditions being at the level of factor mobility or the opening of economies. The economic literature distinguishes three cases of homogeneous preferences which could be dissociated: the spontaneous alignment of the small country on the large one; monetary union in which the hegemonic partner imposes alignment and its modalities on the other; negotiated convergence. To these traditional criteria, Fleming (1971) and De Grauwe (1975) add the similarity of preferences between inflation rate and unemployment rate, a low differential in growth rates and living standards, Vaubel (1976, 1978) emphasizes the low volatility of the real exchange rate.

e-  Endogeneity of the criteria of the theory of optimal currency areas.

According to the traditional theory of OCA, the satisfaction of these criteria is a precondition which ensures the optimality of the currency area. However, some researchers in the late 1990s took a different approach from that which existed for OCA. They argue that the criteria of traditional OCA theory have so far focused on ex ante conditions. Frankel and Rose

(1997) question this analysis by arguing that even if the satisfaction of the optimality criteria is not proven (ex-ante) before the unification of currencies, it is quite likely that it will (ex-post) following the beneficial effects of the union. The criteria for OCA are in fact endogenous. The formation of a monetary union could help make an area that was not optimal in the first place. The reality that underlies the endogeneity of the optimality criteria is that monetary integration would reduce transaction costs, an increase in foreign direct investment, an intensification of intra- zone trade, and a strengthening of economic and financial integration and finally an improvement in the asymmetry of business cycles. Frankel and Rose (1997), by studying some twenty industrialized countries over a period of thirty years, have come to the conclusion that monetary union by promoting trade between member countries helps to harmonize the symmetry of shocks. This contradicts Krugman (1993) who found that currency unions had the effect of contributing to the asymmetry of shocks across countries. These results have been confirmed by Artis and Zhang (1995) and Fidrmuc (2001). Rose (2000) estimated the effect of membership of a monetary union at more than 200% on trade. This effect is rather surprising, according to De Grauwe and Skudelny (2000), Frankel and Wei (1992) and Eichengreen and Irwin (1995) who have demonstrated the minimal effect of a decrease in exchange rate volatility on the volume of trades. However, a number of studies have nonetheless confirmed the positive effect of a monetary union on the volume of trade. Most of these studies were performed using a gravity model. In response to Rose (2000), Persson (2001) proposes an alternative method to correct the self- selection problem that tainted Rose's work. Using the same data, he arrives at an increase in the volume of trade, statistically insignificant, between 13% and 66%. Glick and Rose (2002) use a gravity equation with fixed effects to control for one-sided variables that may bias the results.

This innovation has the effect of reducing the increase in trade induced by membership of a monetary union to 100%. Tenreyro (2002) uses a selection model à la Heckman (1979) with selection control on unobserved variables. Alesina, Barro and Tenreyro (2002) and in Barro and Tenreyro (2007), after having evaluated the conditions ex ante, the authors construct an instrumental variable in order to solve the problem of endogeneity, to perform an ex post analysis. First, they assess the likelihood of a country

forming a monetary union with another country by pegging its currency to its own. The instrumental variable is then obtained by calculating the joint probability that two countries adopt the same currency. The gravity equation being re-estimated, they find that countries sharing the same language, having been colonized by the same country and geographically close are more likely to form a monetary union. At the end of this overview of the existing literature, we note that the optimality of a monetary zone is based not only on the ex-ante conditions but also on those ex post.

2: Analysis of stylized facts on the criteria for adopting a single currency: the case of the ECOWAS Zone.

This chapter presents the analysis of stylized facts on factor mobility, trade openness, and diversification of the ECOWAS economy.

  Section 1: Factor mobility

The ECOWAS zone has a population of over 349 million inhabitants over an area of 5,114,859 km2. Nigeria records 52.21% of the population of the Zone, followed by Ghana with 7.85%, Côte d'Ivoire with 6.50%, Niger with 5.70%, Burkina Faso with 5.19% , Mali with 5.04%, Senegal with 4.33% on an area of 3.85% of the whole ECOWAS region.

Table 1: Population structure in the ECOWAS zone

Source: compiled by the author based on World Bank statistics.

There is a mobility of the peoples of West Africa. According to Sylvie Bredeloup, “80% of migration on the continent is intra-African. It should be noted that those who move the most are the populations of West Africa who themselves move within their regional group. According to ECOWAS, (2007) "the region is now home to about 7.5 million migrants from another West African country, (intra-area migration)". This migration within West Africa according to Sylvie Bredeloup (2017) is divided into three poles. There is a first pole around Côte d'Ivoire, a sparsely populated country that has attracted populations from Mali, Burkina Faso, and Guinea and even Senegal to meet its labor needs to exploit its agricultural wealth. The second pole was built around Nigeria which drained populations originating in particular from Ghana, Benin, attracted by the oil rent. And then there is this third pole around Senegal, which has attracted nationals from all neighboring countries such as Guinea and Cape Verde for historical reasons”. According to Sylvère Yao Konan, Rudolf Anich, Timon Van Lidth and Pietro Mona (2011) have shown that out of a total of 4,225,066 immigrants in 2000 in ECOWAS countries from all over the world, 3,488,592 are from this region. same region, ie 83% with significant disparities between these countries.

Table 2: Stock of immigrants from ECOWAS in target countries, 2000.

Source: These estimates are based on census data for the period 1995–2005.

The ECOWAS countries are characterized by relatively low domestic savings levels, which explain the constraints of domestic financing and intra-zone foreign direct investment. The top five countries with the highest domestic savings rates in 2018 are Cape Verde with 35%, Ghana with 21%, Niger with 20%, Senegal with 20% and Nigeria with 19%. The ECOWAS financial system is fragmented. WAEMU is currently the only Zone where the banking system is harmonized. On the other hand, the WAMZ which brings together countries (Nigeria, Ghana, Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea) has a plurality of banking systems. In addition, we note the existence of five stock exchanges in ECOWAS, namely, the Cape Verde Stock Exchange, the Ghana Stock Exchange, the Nigeria Stock Exchange, the  Sierra Leone Stock Exchange and the Regional Stock Exchange. UEMOA regional stock exchange (BRVM). Evaluations of the ECOWAS stock market have shown that most exchanges are small and differ in the principles of regulations governing them. Some countries, for example, allow non- resident investors to sell securities listed on the stock exchange in their respective countries while others oppose this facility as well as the repatriation of investment capital, dividends, payments of interest and other related profits.

Given the limitations of the domestic financial system, the mobilization of foreign savings constitutes a privileged source of financing for the ECOWAS economy. But the direction of foreign capital flows, especially FDI, seems to be driven by existence or factor endowments. The countries of central, southern and southern Africa are areas that attract foreign direct investment flows. According to M. Mouissi, (2015) “Between 2013 and 2014, the distribution of FDI within the 6 major regional economic spaces of the African continent reveals nuances. Thus, if at the strictly quantitative level, the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) and the Southern African Development Community (SADC) attracted a large share of FDI on the continent in 2014 (32 billion USD), The best FDI increases between 2013 and 2014 were recorded by the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS) and the Community of East African States (EAC). We note that in 2014, only 3 of the 6 regions studied recorded a positive variation in their inward FDI flow. These are ECCAS, EAC and COMESA. In 2014, two ECOWAS member countries, notably Nigeria (5th position) and Ghana (7th position) appear in the top 10

African countries having recorded the highest inflows of foreign direct investment.

Table 4: Top Ten of African countries with the highest inflows of foreign direct investment.

Source: Africa / Breakdown of foreign direct investment by country Mays Mouissi • July 28, 2015.

Section 2: Degree of openness of countries in the ECOWAS zone

The Top 5 countries in the ECOWAS zone that have displayed a marked trade opening profile are:

§  Liberia with an opening rate of 170,07% and an import rate of 310,10%,

§ Ghana with an opening rate of 62,03%, and an import rate of 62%;

§ Guinea with an opening rate of 61,5% and an import rate of 69,32%,

§  The Ivory Coast with an opening rate of 50, 55% and an import rate of 46.77%, Togo with an opening rate of 44, 21% and an import rate of 64, 73%.

§  Senegal records an openness rate of 39, 37%, dominated by imports which represent 55, 10%. The degree of trade openness of these

countries is explained by their high levels of imports relative to exports. These countries trade very little with each other. Intra- ECOWAS trade is low. They cannot therefore constitute a ZMO within the meaning of Mackinnon.

Table 5: Measurement of the degree of openness of countries in the ECOWAS zone

Source: compiled by the author based on World Bank statistics.

It can be seen that four countries register a high specialization, with their export earnings from a single product ranging between 50-100%; these are Guinea Bissau, Nigeria, Cape Verde, and Mali. There are also moderately specialized countries, which record export earnings on a product of between 30 and 50%; these are countries such as Guinea, Ghana, Burkina Faso, Liberia, Gambia, Benin, Ivory Coast. Finally, we note the category of countries that are not very specialized or characterized by diversified economies, which records export earnings for a product of between 0 and 30%, notably Niger, Senegal, Sierra Leone and Togo. In other words, Senegal appears in the category of countries in the Zone characterized by diversified economies.

Table 6: Structure of the diversification of ECOWAS economies

Source: table compiled by the author based on World Bank statistics.

In general, the traditional criteria of MUNDELL, Mackinnon and KENEN appear to be poorly verified in the ECOWAS zone.

Table 7: Specialization of ECOWAS member countries

Source: table drawn up on the basis of the work of UNCTAD2011.

Conclusion

The aim of this research was to provide an answer to the following main research question: Does the ECOWAS zone fulfill the necessary conditions for an optimal monetary zone? To do this, we carried out an ex-ante evaluation of the ECOWAS monetary union project. We  therefore attempted to test the following research hypothesis: the ECOWAS Zone 0 fulfills the necessary conditions for an optimal monetary zone. The methodology adopted to test this hypothesis is based on a review of the theoretical literature on the research problem, supplemented by an analysis of stylized facts on the economy of ECOWAS as well as on a certain number of variables namely factor mobility, degree of trade openness and diversification of ECOWAS economies. The results of our research reveal an appreciable mobility of the peoples of West Africa. However, the ECOWAS financial system is fragmented. We also note at the level of the Region, a polarization of inward FDI flows at the level of three countries including Nigeria and Ghana, an economic profile marked by specialization and a fairly considerable trade opening explained by their significant import levels compared to exports. Senegal is one of the countries that records significant intra-zone competitiveness. It records 4.19% of the populations of the ECOWAS region, covering an area of 3.85% of the entire space; a domestic savings rate of 17.6% in 2010, thus occupying the 7th place among the member countries of the Zone; an openness rate of 39.37%, dominated by imports which represents 55.10%, and appears in the category of countries in the Zone characterized by diversified economies. Benefiting from the WAEMU harmonized banking system, Senegal is one of the immigration poles in West Africa. In other words, Senegal fulfills the criteria of trade openness and economic diversification, factor mobility necessary for its integration into the ECOWAS monetary union. The ECOWAS community policies, should continue the process of convergence of advantages emphasizing the convergence criteria for an optimal monetary zone within the meaning of Mendel. These said criteria should focus on measures that could further promote labor factor mobility, and financial integration of West African countries not members of UEMOA; better geographic distribution of foreign capital flows.

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